Saturday, February 7, 2009

Obama's Plan Dissected

I guess the best way to start this blog would be to look at what's on the White House's agenda and pick apart the language used there. Just for today, we can look at Afghanistan and Pakistan.

AFGHANISTAN

What the agenda says: Obama and Biden will refocus American resources on the greatest threat to our security- the resurgence of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan. They will increase troop levels in Afghanistan, press our allies in NATO to do the same, and dedicate more resources to revitalize Afghanistan's economic development. Obama and Biden will demand the Afghan government to do more, including cracking down on corruption and the illicit opium trade.

What I say: Well obviously, the most important thing in Afghanistan is that we have more boots on the ground, but what the agenda fails to mention is that these troops are going to be completely useless if they're stationed on a base in the middle of the mountains. Like Iraq, Jihadists in Afghanistan, especially in the northwest mountainous region, are not sitting in bases of their own. They're in with the population, disguised and holding the locals at rhetorical gunpoint so they're too afraid to help American forces. The impossibility of this situation is what the Obama agenda fails to convey. However, kudos on pointing out the obvious problem of the opium trade coming out of Afghanistan, the Bush administration was not loathe to talk about it, mainly because if they acknowledged it they'd be forced to combat it which of course they had no means with which to combat it with.

Further research: Check out one of the most recent installments of PBS Frontline, called "The War Briefing." Pay particular attention to end credits when my name rolls across the screen.

PAKISTAN

What the agenda says: Obama and Biden will increase nonmilitary aid to Pakistan and hold them accountable for security in the border region with Afghanistan.

What I say: Well, duh. But, like anything on paper, it's not that easy. The politicians in Pakistan, like former Prime Minister Musharref, aren't in control. Pakistan's armed forces are run by the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence bureau, and not only do they, on many levels, sympathize with Jihadist's, but they'll never send troops into the "border region with Afghanistan." This area, called Waziristan, is where al Qaeda and the Taliban fled to in 2001 when we chased them out, but were unable to follow them through the mountains and into Waziristan (for more information on this, check out A Flawed Masterpiece by Michael O'Hanlon in the May/June 2002 issue of Foreign Affairs.) So, really what Obama's agenda should say is "We're going to figure out who's actually in charge in there and convince them to combat terrorism in Waziristan rather than make treaties with them."

Further research: It's a little outdated for today's current events, but the PBS Frontline film "The Return of the Taliban" is a great resource for learning about what happens in that "border region" that Obama is talking about.

1 comment:

  1. cool analysis...maybe you can post a link to the frontline and O'Hanlon clips

    ReplyDelete